For Putin, ammunition costs money, and the dead cost nothing

As we enter the final round of the war in Ukraine there is a mist of claims and counter claims of battlefield progress, with a bevy of outrageous Russian demands thrown into the mix. It all points to the increasingly likely prospect of a ceasefire – perhaps around Easter. As the deadline looms, both sides are in a desperate land grab in order to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table. For Ukraine, under pressure from President Trump, bargaining chips are few.  

Recently we have seen further incursions into Russia by Ukrainian troops, notably in the Belgorod region. This operation is smaller in scale than the massive incursion into Kursk last year but it’s making progress. With analysts trying to divine what we are seeing, this could be several things. The force is relatively small – battle group size – with dozens of US supplied Bradley armoured fighting vehicles giving it swift mobility. Seizing high ground and threatening several villages, the incursion is drawing Russian forces from elsewhere to contain it. This may be the aim. It may be, alternatively, to conduct a reconnaissance in force looking to find weak spots to exploit with heavier forces swiftly moved from elsewhere on the frontline. This is very much in the style of the old Soviet doctrine which is still in vogue with both the Russians and (to the frustration of Western military trainers and advisers) the Ukrainians.  

It may be quite simply a reflection of the fact that, as in a game of musical chairs, the music will stop, perhaps in the next month. When it does, you have what you hold. Speaking to some Ukrainian soldiers visiting the UK on a lecture tour last week, they tell me the manifestation of this on the Russian side is last gasp attempts, with human wave attacks. These assaults are initially led by the walking wounded, some on crutches, pushed forward to draw Ukrainian fire before the ramshackle main effort is thrown forward in reckless charges.  

This all indicates that both sides recognise that an end is near, with the Ukranians using the precious equipment sent from the West to gain ground and leverage and Putin throwing away what he sees as the useless mouths of the wounded in a last push ahead of some tough negotiations in the Stalinist style.

For Putin, ammunition costs money, and the dead cost nothing.

Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer. He served in the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish for the invasion of Iraq, on which occasion his before-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world