Bus Stations/ Bus Security/ Bus Related Incidents - Pakistan,Karachi:

[The News] PAKISTAN - 12 dead, 50 hurt in Karachi blast

"At least 12 people were killed and over 50 others injured when a powerful explosion occurred in a public vehicle plying on Sharah-e-Faisal of Karachi, media reported Friday."

"According to Geo News, the blast occurred in a mini bus near Nursery stop towards FTC. The injured riding a mini bus coming from Malir, include children and women."

Read the full article:

http://thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=97907

See also

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fgw-pakistan-blasts6-2010feb06,0,5267207.story

http://alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SGE6140E2.htm

http://www.ptinews.com/news/502215_11-people-killed-and-40-wounded-in-Karachi-blast

This incident provided via the GlobalIncidentMap.com incident monitoring system

Read more: Global Incident Map

Buffalo News

Antique gun theft case solved by West Seneca police Buffalo News ... lived alone in a cave along Cazenovia Creek for many years before building a shack and living a lifestyle similar to that of a modern survivalist. ... and more »

Read more: survivalist - Google News

Same experience in Britain, Norway and several other countries who put their eggs into this basket. A huge gaffe based on the assumption the future was going to be warmer, not colder. See what we mean about the wages of stupidity?

I have been thinking about this eventuality for many years. That's why I have designed my energy strategy primarily around diesel fuel as the ultimate backup, with other means being only expedient measures when sun and wind are available.

Poor Brits have lost the intellectual power required to continue living

Read more: Vault-Co

Tune in tonight on James Stevens Show to hear Marica from the Mississippi Preppers Network and possibly a few other preppers the first hour discuss the prepper Syposium and other prepping topics, and then on the second hour you can listen to the Hydroponics guys from www.hydropongarden.com

If you'd like to be on as a caller, here is the call in number 347-326-9604. Give it a try. Tonight.
Time:
5:00PM Pacific/6:00PM Mountain/7:00PM Central/8:00PM Eastern.

Link: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/James-Talmage-Steven

Read more: American Preppers Network

Read more: Daily Survival Blog - Prepare

Read more: Daily Survival Blog - Prepare

Back in October, I participated in the 2^nd International Biophysical Economics Conference at SUNY-ESF in Syracuse, New York. Charlie Hall had written to me, inviting me to come and give a talk. Specifically, he wanted me to go back to my post from January 2008 called Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008 and explain why my forecasts had turned out pretty close to correct, while many others widely missed the mark. The title he suggested for the talk was Delusions of Finance.

My financial forecast really has implications for beyond 2008, so I added some more forecasting thoughts as well. In this post, I would like to share this presentation with you. A download of the presentation, plus an audio recording, are available at the Biophysical Economics Conference Proceedings website under Gail Tverberg.

I am a casualty actuary by training and spent many years doing forecasting and modeling as an insurance company employee and later as a consultant to insurance companies. Many of these companies were small medical malpractice insurance companies that provided insurance for a group of hospitals or physicians. Medical malpractice claims are notoriously slow to be reported and to be paid, so we had to forecast many years of reporting and payments, (and corresponding investment income). These models were used both for determining appropriate insurance rates and for determining balance sheet reserves for these companies. Quite often I was involved in putting together models for proposed new companies in order to estimate likely capital requirements. I was also prepared a lot of estimates of the likely impacts of medical malpractice reforms.

All of this didn't really give me any special training for making financial forecasts relating to peak oil, but it did give me a lot of practice with making forecasts and trying to think outside the box. I needed to figure out what was unique to each situation, and figure out a way to model it. I hadn't gone through the standard MBA training, but I had bumped up against a fair amount of it along the way.

My background goes back far enough that I had a chance to see how badly insurance companies fared back in the 1974 period, when oil shocks affected insurance companies. One of my former employers went bankrupt, and another one nearly did. I could see that if a similar situation happened now, other financial companies would likely be affected as well.

Quite a bit of the rest of this presentation is fairly self-explanatory, especially if you have seen some of my other presentations, so I won't provide too much in the way of comments.

Slide 3

This is a link to the full post. You may want to read it, if you haven't previously.

Slide 4

My later slides explain these points more fully.

Slide 5

Slide 6

Slide 7

If you stop to think about it, there a quite a few differences in the way the economy functions in a period of economic growth and in a period of economic decline. The assumption of continued economic growth by traditional economists (who don't consider resources and their limits) has been so strong that most have not even considered what the economy would look like in a period of long-term decline.

Slide 8

Many have observed that there would have been defaults, even without peak oil, because of the reckless lending that had been done. I would contend that at least part of the reason the lending had been done was to give the illusion of growth, when there really wasn't much apart from that generated from very loose lending standards. Furthermore, even if loose lending standards were part of the problem, the problems related to peak oil made it worse (and can be expected to cause more problems in the future).

Slide 9

When there isn't a problem like peak oil (or limits to growth in general), debt defaults are in fact pretty much independent. That is why the system for determining insurance charges to be included in the interest rates charged for loans worked pretty well until peak oil came along. In the absence of peak oil, a homeowner or businessman defaults because of some particular problems he or she has. Past history is likely to be predictive of the future, because while there are different individuals defaulting, the average number of defaults will tend to be pretty stable from year to year.

Slide 10

It is possible that there will be some loans in a declining economy, but their use will be much less widespread than we see today. Their cost will also tend to be higher.

Slide 11

When lending is increasing, businesses have more money to invest in new plants and equipment and homeowners find it easy to get loans of new homes or for home improvements.

Slide 12

As countries cut back their stimulus funds, the decline in credit available may be especially severe. I noticed this article this morning:

Lenders warn of mortgage shortages

Britain’s banks and building societies have warned that they will have to slash mortgage lending and raise rates on home loans if the government insists on prompt and full repayment of the £300bn they have received in state support since 2008.

Slide 13

Slide 14

In the US, homeowners used their homes as a piggy-banks when home values were rising. They could refinance their homes, remove the built-up equity, and buy new cars, furniture, and other things. When there are fewer home buyers (because of less loan availability), and continually declining values, the effect is reversed.

Slide 15

Credit problems are really what are likely to spread the lack of oil to a much broader reduction in fuel use, essentially through growing recession. This recession may affect OECD to a greater extent than non-OECD, but there are such great links between the two that I expect eventually all will be affected. This reduction in fuel use is likely to be described in the press as "reduced demand"--which it is, but because of recession induced by credit contraction (ultimately going back to lack of growth in oil supply).

Slide 16

Slide 17

Slide 18

I am sure that some trade will continue, even if countries have financial problems. But it seems to me that a very large amount of trade is needed to keep up our system at the current level. High tech equipment would seem to be hardest to create with local materials alone. We can make simple things, like wheelbarrows and shovels with recycled steel, but it is not clear that precision parts for things like computers and other high tech equipment can be made without exactly the right imports from around the world, and factories set up with the right controls.

Slide 19

These changes could start very soon. It is hard to know precisely how things will play out.

Read more: The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future

Obama renews call for oil taxes in 2011 budget

"For our members—the small businessmen and women of our nation's oil and gas industry—this is a knockout blow," Somerlyn Cothran, executive director of the National Stripper Well Association in Tulsa, said on Feb. 2. "Implementation of this budget proposal would mean a significant loss of jobs and a dramatic loss of tax revenues for each of the 35 states where our members are productive, contributing businesses. Plus, the resulting decrease in oil production will serve only to make America even more dependent upon foreign oil."

Cothran noted that while a marginal, or stripper, well produces 15 b/d or less of oil, US stripper wells collectively produce 20% of the country's oil or 1.2 million b/d—as much as the US imports from Saudi Arabia.

"There is a shocking difference between the 'big oil' companies and the little guys, who are Rotary Club and PTA members in their respective hometowns," Cothran emphasized. "There should absolutely be a structural and financial difference in relation to tax subsidies between the large-scale, international oil companies and small, independent operators. This is the only way to ensure the survival of our industry's small businesses."

Characterizing the incalculable (Kurt Cobb)

A rule of thumb then might be that the more complex the system, the less likely it is we will be able to model its actions with precision. And, the greater the number of humans involved in affecting that system and the deeper that involvement, the more difficult it becomes to design precise models of the system. In general, the reliability of a model decreases as the complexity of the system it is modeling increases.

What are we left with then? Shall we simply give up and say that much of what we would like to model cannot be modeled? I would counsel against this view.

The Market Potential of CNG as a Transportation Fuel

CNG and battery-powered vehicles are often presented as competing alternatives for the future of transportation, and in some sense, that’s true. However, based on today’s economics, they have far different potentials and address quite different market needs and niches. For those who believe in peak oil, at least in the sense of a limit on the volume of affordable oil, CNG represents potential as a critical alternative fuel which can permit the global economy to grow again.

On the other hand, CNG is unlikely to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. . .

CNG and electric vehicles, therefore, should be understood to target different market segments and solve different social problems. Both are potentially important alternatives for society in the coming years.

Entropy revisited

You can't win, you can't break even, and you can't get out of the game. Those kernels are my favorite descriptors of the Three Laws of Thermodynamics. Respectively, the clauses mean (1) energy is conserved (First Law), (2) entropy never decreases, thus precluding perpetual motion machines (Second Law), and (3) it is impossible to cool a system to absolute zero (Third Law). The Second Law in particular puts insurmountable, irreversible constraints on everything we do. Without the Second Law, there would be no heat losses in energy systems, and electricity would be far too cheap to meter and commodify.

One way of looking at our current set of predicaments is that we've been on a binge, consuming energy considerably faster than it can be captured and stored by Earth's ecosystems. While fossil fuels once appeared limitless (and still do to deniers of peak oil), and though we're literally bathed in energy (in the form of sunlight), the disappearance of the fossil-fuel storehouse accumulated over millions of years isn't something that can be replaced with anything nearly as convenient as fossil fuels. Solar, wind, wave, geothermal, nuclear, and hydropower simply don't pack the same punch as fossil fuels, either singly or in combination. In short, we're falling off the net-energy cliff, and there's no lifeline to grab onto, no known technology to break the fall.

Permits Drag on U.S. Mining Projects

Obtaining the permits and approvals needed to build a mine in the U.S. takes an average of seven years, among the longest wait time in the world. So despite having vast underground stores of raw materials, the U.S. is one of the last places miners go to start a project.

At the proposed Kennecott Eagle nickel mine in Michigan's sparsely populated Upper Peninsula, the wait is at seven years and growing. Global miner Rio Tinto says the project would fill a raw-material gap in the U.S. economy, but the company has yet to produce an ounce of nickel there.

Survey Says Americans Support Carbon Tax More Than Cap-and-Trade - But Nobody Really Knows Much About Either...

One aspect of this survey which is backed up by others: Not too many people have even heard of either approach. 35% of people responded saying they had never even heard the term cap-and-trade before, with 26% saying they know only a very little about it. Carbon tax had 31% of people being entirely unaware of the term, with a further 26% knowing little about it.

The Biggest Thing is That Few Even Think About Pricing Carbon
More than espousing either cap-and-trade or a carbon tax by presenting this survey--and I admit that the results happen to correspond well with the US Climate Task Force's avowed mission of singing the praises of a carbon tax over cap-and-trade--I think the real take away from this is the average American really hasn't been made aware of either approach. (Still less cap-and-dividend...)

Shell Denies Plans to Sell Major Nigerian Assets

Royal Dutch Shell PLC has denied it plans to sell major Nigerian assets in the coming months, a Nigerian minister said Friday.

"Shell hasn't come to us and when I inquired they denied it, that they were selling major assets," Odein Ajumogobia, State Minister for Petroleum Resources, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.

The founder of the Virgin group, whose rail, airline and travel companies are sensitive to energy prices, will say that the ­coming crisis could be even more serious than the credit crunch.

"The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well," Branson will say.

"Our message to government and businesses is clear: act," he says in a foreword to a new report on the crisis. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did."

UK gas traders not worried by cold weather forecasts

Freezing temperatures in the UK this week are expected to tighten the gas supply-demand balance but gas prices will be capped by partially replenished mid-range storage and demand ceilings of around 420 million cubic meters/day, UK gas trading sources said Monday.

The Rough storage facility is down to 40% of capacity, and short-term storage capacity is also below 50%. The comparative levels held in storage now are far below levels seen even four weeks ago following prolonged heavy draws as the country dealt with the last spell of severe winter weather.

So far the gas market has absorbed the impact of the relatively cold winter without any significant impact on the curve, with summer 10 gas trading roughly stable at 33 pence/therm and winter 10 gas at 45.5 p/therm.

UK prompt power edges up on cold-induced hike in gas prices

UK power for delivery on the next working day inched higher Monday on a cold-weather induced increase in the price for natural gas, the fuel for over two-fifths of the country's power generation, although gains were limited on expectations that healthy margins could soak up any demand increase, traders said.

Working day-ahead baseload power rose 15 pence to GBP36.40/MWh ($56.67/MWh, Eur41.52/MWh) by 12:00 GMT, while day-ahead peak was flat around GBP40.25/MWh. . .

"There's so much plant out there right now that you could double demand and power would still trade off fuels," one trader said.

"We really need to see a chunk of cheap plant to come offline to see some action," the trader added.

Roundtable discussion of the top oil stories of the week (Podcast)

Peter Zipf, Beth Evans and Jeff Mower discuss the three top oil news stories of the week, including earnings results and how this relates to market developments, the new renewable fuels standard and biofuels approach, and the fiscal 2011 US budget, which may include a repeal of tax breaks for the oil and gas industry.

At least 5 dead in Connecticut power plant blast

Fire officials said a natural gas leak caused the blast during testing at the Kleen Energy Systems LLC facility, which was 95 percent complete and due to come online this summer as the largest electricity generating plant in New England.

As many as 200 workers were at the site on any given day and the exact number of dead and injured would not be known until each contractor provided a list of employees, Middletown Mayor Sebastian Giuliano told a press conference.

Credit Suisse survey finds bearish sentiment on US gas prices

Energy investors surveyed by Credit Suisse are bearish on US natural gas prices in 2010, but bullish on natural gas stocks, Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Wolf said Friday.

Financial and energy professionals believe gas prices will average between $5 and $5.50/MMBtu this year, slightly below pricing suggested by the NYMEX futures curve. Credit Suisse surveyed attendees at the bank's Energy Summit in Vail, Colorado earlier this week.

The reason for the gloominess? Liquified natural gas, respondents indicated.

Cape Wind fight goes on

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar journeyed out into Nantucket Sound on a Coast Guard vessel last week to signal the Obama administration's readiness to put some muscle behind wind energy. To do that, Salazar has to resolve a battle over building a wind farm on 25 square miles of open water that has driven a rift between environmentalists, infuriated local Native Americans and threatened one of the administration's cherished priorities.

Iran’s President Moves Ahead on Uranium Processing

Iran’s president ordered his atomic scientists on Sunday to begin enriching their stockpile of uranium in order to power a medical reactor, a move that accelerated Iran’s brinkmanship over its nuclear program by moving the country closer to producing weapons-grade fuel.

Earth, wind and wire: Going beyond solar panels

Not long ago, people who wanted to generate their own green energy at home had to content themselves with rooftop solar panels. But new technologies -- and hefty government subsidies -- are now allowing homeowners to tap the wind, the Earth and other renewable sources in their own backyards. Call it the green evolution.

The cost of heating and cooling with fossil fuels has nowhere to go but up, thanks to rising global demand and increased regulation of carbon emissions. Turning one's home into a clean mini-power plant is getting cheaper and easier all the time.

CTA's Doomsday service faces its first rush hour

Predictable as it was that the threat of previous CTA service cuts would not be carried out, it was even more obvious there was no stopping them this time.

The questions now are:

What will it take to forge successful negotiations between CTA management and the transit agency's labor unions (since neither the city of Chicago nor the state of Illinois is willing to put skin in the game)?

How long will it take? Is Henry Kissinger or Al Sharpton available to help move things along?

How soon could full service be restored?

Canal expansion may spur switch to shipping

Chinese toys and sneakers headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. on the U.S. East Coast may bypass Warren Buffett's $33.8 billion railway as the expansion of the Panama Canal slashes the cost of shipping them by sea. The deeper, wider canal will allow A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, China Ocean Shipping Group Co. and other lines to ship more cargo directly to New York and Boston instead of unloading it on the West Coast for trains and trucks to finish the journey east. That could save exporters 30 percent, the canal operator said.

Wind industry picks up, but jobs decline

America's wind energy industry enjoyed a banner year in 2009, thanks largely to tax credits and other incentives packed into the $787 billion economic stimulus bill. But even though a record 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity was created, few jobs were created overall and wind power manufacturing employment fell — a setback for President Obama's pledge to create millions of new "green jobs." Obama has long pitched green jobs, especially in the energy, transportation and manufacturing fields, as a prescription for long-term, stable employment and a prosperous middle class.
But those jobs have been slow to materialize, especially skilled, good-paying blue-collar jobs such as assembling wind turbines, retrofitting homes to use less energy and working on solar panels in the desert.

Gas price slump stings BG

UK-based integrated gas giant BG Group saw profits from continuing operations slip 15% year on year to £592 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 amid a sharp decline in natural gas prices.

Blizzard bumps oil prices

Oil prices reversed some of last week's losses today and rose from a seven-week low to near $72 a barrel, spurred by bargain hunting and hopes that a blizzard in the US mid-Atlantic region would boost fuel demand.

Santos unveils reserves bonanza

Australian independent Santos said it had boosted total proved and probable reserve at the end of last year by 42%, or 427 million barrels of oil equivalent, year-on-year to a total 1.44 million boe.

The company said reserves were plumped by a 60% year-on-year increase in proved and probable coalbed methane reserves to 3748 petajoules (about 100 billion cubic metres), which included its first booked reserves after entering the Gunnedah basin in 2007.

EPA lowers cellulosic ethanol standard for 2010

The US Environmental Protection Agency published guidance for the second phase of the renewable fuels standard (RFS2) Feb. 3, directing refiners to ensure that the gasoline pool contains 8.25% ethanol. 

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) required sales of 12.95 billion gal of renewable fuel in 2010. EISA created a second, expanded version of the RFS, known as RFS2. 

The RFS2 rules from EPA originally were scheduled for release Jan. 1, 2009, but EPA delayed the release until this year. 

For the first time, EPA announced volume standards for specific categories of renewable fuels. The 2010 cellulosic ethanol standard is 6.5 million gal, down from the 100 million gal that Congress established in 2007.

Cellulosic shortfalls of two companies led to RFS target cut: EPA

Two companies expected to produce the bulk of the earlier estimate, Cello Energy and Range Fuels, "have delayed or reduced their production plans for 2010," according to the EPA documents.

Cello and Range could not be reached for comment on Friday. . .

Uncertainties about Cello surfaced during a trial last summer where evidence was submitted that showed production from Cello's biodiesel plant did not contain any bio-based carbon. The company claimed it could turn cellulosic material, used tires and plastics into fuel, according to court documents.

US renewable, efficiency standard could save $113 billion: UCS

A federal renewable energy standard of 25% by 2025 combined with an energy efficiency standard of 10% by 2020 could save US electricity consumers $113 billion by 2030, the Union of Concerned Scientists said Friday in a new analysis.

The two standards also would boost renewable energy generation by 23%, the group said.

While job numbers proliferate, is 196,000 a good one?

The consulting firm Navigant said Thursday that by its estimates there are 196,000 people in the US currently employed in the renewable electricity industry.

Job numbers are often carelessly tossed around. Nonetheless, Navigant said in its study that if there is a 12% national RES established for 2014, there could be 67,000 more jobs in the sector by then. A 20% RES target in 2020 would add 191,000 jobs, and a 25% RES target for 2025 would add 274,000 jobs.

For 2025, with a 25% national RES, Navigant broke down the new jobs this way: 116,000 in the wind industry, 60,000 in biomass-related jobs, 50,000 in the solar sector, 34,000 in the hydro sector and 15,000 in the waste-to-energy area.

IADC/SPE: Project is devising autopilot drilling standards

A Research Council of Norway joint industrial project, AutoConRig, aims to develop standard communications for the drilling process, build a framework for autonomous machine control, and create and maintain explicit specifications of shared concepts among drilling centers, reservoir and production centers, operations and maintenance centers, environment centers, and field operations. 

AutoConRig, started in 2008, is part of a larger project, Integrated Operations in the High North, that plans to develop an advanced infrastructural framework of integrated operations off Norway.

Intervention boosts Beatrice field oil flow

he Ensco 80 jack up has moved off the field, which is in the Inner Moray Firth area, after refurbishing and restarting three wells tied into the Beatrice Bravo platform. Ithaca, operator of Beatrice field under a lease from Talisman Energy Inc., had expected the production boost to be about 500 b/d. 

The company attributed about 1,000 b/d of the incremental production to the B11 well, in which intervention included perforation across a previously untapped section of the Middle Jurassic Beatrice reservoir to access an undrained part of the field.

French refining industry situation 'critical'

The French refining industry faces a “critical” situation as part of a European system in which “between 10 to 15% of the 114 refineries should be shut down to restore a demand-supply balance,” says the leader of a trade group. 

Jean-Louis Schilansky, president of Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres (UFIP), gave that assessment at a press conference Feb. 4 in Paris. 

In an industry outlook, Schilansky noted that demand for oil products in France last year dropped by 2.8% in a change he called “structural.” 

Refinery runs for all of last year fell to 72 million tonnes from 84 million tonnes in 2008 as margins diminished.

Valero buys Wisconsin ethanol plant

Valero Renewable Fuels Co. LLC has completed the purchase of a 110 million gal/year ethanol plant near Jefferson, Wis., from privately held Renew Energy. 

The purchase price is $72 million. Renew Energy filed for bankruptcy early last year after 6 years of operation.

Gas pipeline blown up in Quetta

Unknown miscreants have blown up a gas pipeline with explosives located on western bypass here in Quetta on Sunday, Geo news reported. According to police sources, the gas pipeline was under construction when unidentified men blew it up with explosives, but however, the explosion did not result in suspension of gas supply to area.

Nigerian militants say disabled Shell oil pipeline

A Nigerian militant group said on Sunday it had attacked a Royal Dutch Shell oil pipeline in the Niger Delta but the Anglo-Dutch company said it had no reports of any such sabotage.
The Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC), a coalition of ex-militants and community leaders, said in a statement it had disabled a trunk line in the Obunoma area of Rivers state connecting several flow stations to the Bonny export terminal.

Production in Dubai’s new oil field to begin in a year

The Media Office of the Dubai Government said today that the commercial production of oil from the newly discovered ‘Al-Jalilah’ oilfield will start in an year.

Research and initial exploration in the new deposit off the coast of Dubai located east of the existing Rashid oil field predicted the possibility of full scale commercial production within an year, said a statement from the Media office. Once operational the Jalilah Oilfield will be the fifth producing fields in the emirate since the oil was discovered in the sixties of the last century.

Fuel Subsidy: Governors Threaten Legal Action

Some state governments are preparing a legal action against the Federal Government for fuel subsidy deductions from the Federation Account which they claim are illegal and unconstitutional.

The past administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo had initiated the Petroleum Support Fund bill in 2006 to legitimise the deductions to fund the huge subsidy bill, but it is yet to be passed by the National Assembly.
 Also, because of the deregulation programme of the government, the bill is not likely to be pursued any longer as government will no longer be involved in the pricing of petroleum products.

The 36 states of the federation, 774 local councils and the Federal Capital Territory contributed over N1.3 trillion to the subsidy fund between 2006 and last year, although only Lagos, Rivers and Abuja enjoyed the benefit of paying N65 per litre of petrol before the current fuel crisis crept in.

Addressing the food versus fuel debate in Ghana

The lines between energy and agriculture are becoming more blurred. As science advances, the use of biofuels in most parts of the world has continued to increase. One thing that has gradually come to stay and is in recently times attracting significant foreign investment in Ghana is energy crops. The last four years has seen Norwegian, Brazilian, Dutch, Swedish, German and British firms all competing for farmland to grow energy crops in different parts of the country.

The Iraqi oil conundrum

Speculation that Iraq's production could - in the not too distant future - exceed that of Saudi Arabia may still represent Washington's main strategy for postponing future severe global energy shortages.

Shareholder group calls on BP to rethink oil sands project

OIL giant BP is facing calls by a shareholder group to review its plans to invest in major oil sands projects in Canada. FairPensions, which lobbies for companies to adopt "responsible investment practices", has filed a resolution it hopes will be voted on at BP's general meeting in April.

The resolution calls for the risk and audit committees at Europe's second largest oil explorer to review factors such as future carbon prices, potential regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and possible risks to its reputation it might face from investing in oil sands projects.

China's economy set to grow 10%

AN OFFICIAL Chinese economic think tank has predicted the country's economy will grow by around 10 per cent this year. The Centre for Forecasting Science predicted that first quarter growth equivalent to 11 per cent in the first three months of the year would slow slightly during the rest of 2010.

Falklands oil prospects stir Anglo-Argentinian tensions

It does not look like much: a jumble of pipes, containers and drilling equipment sitting on a windswept jetty at Port Stanley. The hardware, however, signals an imminent search for oil and gas that could turn the Falkland Islanders into south Atlantic oil barons, a prospect that has already triggered a dispute between Britain and Argentina.

Is diesel dead?

Diesel. Nasty oily stuff or thrifty saviour? Until fairly recently, you might have said that UK buyers were coming around to the second view.

In Europe, diesel's share of the new passenger car market has grown from 25 per cent to more than 50 per cent during the past decade, but in Britain, from a lower base, growth has been even faster during the same period (from 15 per cent to 43 and a bit). In recent months, though, Britain's love affair with diesel has lost its ardour.

China approves Gansu coal mining plan

Ningzheng mining region is located in eastern Gansu, covering an area of 1,100 square kilometers. The mining region was designed to produce 20 million tons of coal annually after construction, which will become one of the largest energy bases in Northwest China.

$60b Aussie coal deal inked

Australian coal and iron ore company Resourcehouse said over the weekend it had signed a record $60 billion coal supply deal with Chinese power stations, a move analysts said underscored Chinese companies' growing demand for energy to fuel the country's economic development.

Resourcehouse will supply 30 million tons of coal annually over 20 years to China Power International Development Ltd, a unit of major power producer China Power Investment Corp (CPI), Clive Palmer, chairman of the Australian company, said on Saturday.

China's railways send 5m passengers by Feb 6

China's railway network has transported 5.03 million passengers as of February 6, the eighth day of the country's annual Spring Festival transport peak lasting from January 30 to March 10 this year, said the Ministry of Railways (MOR) Sunday. The figure was 105,000 more than that in the same time last year, up 2.1 percent year on year, according to the MOR.

Coal exporters face low prices costly transport

Coal exporters face a tough year without the cushion of forward selling at higher prices that helped get them through 2009, and with their familiar problem of high rail transport costs persisting. Exporters may have to cut production as they did in 2008-09 if prices slump and they cannot shift coal to Asia.

Russia, one of the world's top five coal exporters to Europe and Asia, will ship about 8 percent more thermal coal in 2010 than last year but will battle for more than a slim profit margin, analysts and exporters said.

The Role of Oil in the Iraq War

In truth, the oil production level in Iraq has deteriorated during that period compared to its levels under the former regime. Also, Iraq’s recent openness to the international oil companies in 2009 was not matched by a noticeable openness to American companies. It was the Asian state-owned companies (especially from Malaysia and China) that had the lion’s share, and only two American companies, ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum, were awarded contracts. More importantly, the American companies did not broadly participate in two other Iraqi tenders. Their refrainment from competing with other companies was thus notable and remarkable, especially Chevron which withdrew in the last minute.

Government's switched on energy move

ALL Australian homes will soon have to undergo a mandatory energy-efficiency assessment costing up to $1500 per property. The assessment has to be done before any property can be sold or rented under new laws to tackle carbon emissions.

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THE ACCIDENTAL DOOMER


I know that generally you assume only great things from the keyboard of your favorite survivalist writer. That’s me, Bison, by the way in case you forgot. Usually by Sunday after a day’s rest I am inspired to deliver on that assumption. This time it almost didn’t happen and you came really close to getting a standard space filler such as a solar water heater. Don’t relax, it could still happen. But at the last minute I remembered an amusing tale I have been meaning to share with you, how your very same favorite author of all things paranoid and apocalyptic came to be such an enlightened guru for you. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been a survivalist for decades. But why did I take the dark path towards full blown despair and doom? No, I’m not talking about my unbalanced mental state. Rather, those small events in life that equal more in their sum than their parts. If it wasn’t for a few different events, I would still be content with 300 pounds of wheat berries, a water filter and a handgun. Instead, I am huddled inside my tin box in the desert, eagerly awaiting the crash of civilization. Why? Instead of just planning for a failed harvest or earthquake, caching enough supplies to cover 90% of possible disasters, why did I come to embrace the idea that we are all destined for the stewpot?

*

I could point to discovering Peak Oil, or being advised to read one or another particular book. But, really, if you aren’t already primed for that kind of message, can it ever take root? I don’t think so. Of course, having said that, I still try to preach to my minions, even though I should know better. You are living in the city, have a mortgage, drive an SUV and are content with a garden and a skeet shotgun. Not because you are ignorant or refuse to listen to reason. Because you have no reason to regard my message as the truth. Why disrupt your life and family if you don’t really believe, right? So, let’s go on that dangerous trek into my psyche and dig around a bit. Don’t worry, we aren’t going too deep. I don’t want to scare the children. Or the dogs. We’re just going to scratch the surface. And, as you might expect, as usual the cause is found in wife number two. Listen, don’t roll your eyes at me. I told you we aren’t searching too deep. There won’t be any recounting of High School gym class, communal showers, sleep deprivation brainwashing from the military, my smoking habit traceable to inadequate breast feeding or anything else. Wife number two was the closest I’ve ever come to true, pure evil and it made a lasting mark on me.

*

Have you ever been touched by a demon from the lower depths of Hell? It is a traumatic experience. Don’t judge, you unfeeling bastard. Let’s start with my honeymoon. After the ceremony we had a reception. My boss at the time was really generous and closed the station early and we all got drunk ( even the teenagers ). He left after a decent interval and we all broke out the illicit substances. A good time was had by all, and I enjoyed a pizza talking to me and my stream of urine changing into the colors of the rainbow. That night, as we were in a hotel room, I watched Tango And Cash at least half a dozen times on cable. The next morning I was feeling less than optimal and my blushing bride drove up to the redwoods. Well, it turns out that I had really pissed her off by not servicing her the night before. She was no pure virgin when we met and we had been sleeping together for a year, but she was so pissed from that night on she started denying me sex more often than not. Yes, I know, I’m an uncaring bastard, more to a relationship than sex, blah, blah. Jimmy couldn’t get his rocks off, boo hoo. Hey, I’m telling you, this was a traumatic event for me. But that isn’t where I’m leading with this. You see, I really thought this was my one true love, that we were destined to live together for the rest of our lives. So I didn’t see this as the relationship altering experience. I was totally blind. I thought it was just a normal thing where a relationship goes from white hot to a normal simmer. What an idiot I was. So, after our divorce, I was seduced by her promises that we should get back together. I still didn’t see the problem when she broke it off a week later after I had moved half way across the country to move in with her. She was kicking me out and the only thing I could do was go back to wife number three.

*

Let me explain about number three. She was a good wife. Cooked like a goddess. Wanted sex more than I did. But she was chunky when we met and put on pounds by the day after we got married. After a time the sight of her was revolting. She wanted to please me but she had a mental short circuit where any stress at all called for a Twinkie and some Doritos. So after a time she really went full blown Pear Person. Gross! I have no problem with chunky, but full on blubber is just too much. But I had to go back to her after being kicked out from #2. Needless to say, when number two AGAIN batted her eyes and promised me the moon I was eager to leave. To make a long story a bit shorter, that was the last time I switched between the two wives. I left number two for good after she threatened to call the police on me. Not because of any actual threat but because she wasn’t getting her way in an argument and that was her last card to play. Trumped up abuse charges. From that day on, all the crap from the past actually stuck with me. The threat of homelessness. The financial rape. The threat of being unjustifiable incarcerated. Having to mount the Pear Person. Only then did it all seem real, like I was no longer able to roll and slide with the punches but that there were actually forces out there that could alter my life for the worse. Before that day, I could give a crap about money or possessions. I could always get another job. I could always live cheap enough to survive a temporary financial setback. But after the drapes of reality were swept aside I could no longer be so blasé. I was now running scared for good.

*

I actually feel a bit of gratitude. If it wasn’t for that one day, and of course all of the events leading up to it, I never would have eagerly embraced the coming of Y2K. I never would have buckled down to a serious pursuit of writing. I never would have started both saving and investing. The last twelve years, roughly half of my working adult life, have been a time of transformation. One in which I’ve become more and more paranoid and fearful, but also much better prepared for calamity. Perhaps it is nobody else’s fault that I flew in such a trajectory at such a velocity but my own. Perhaps I’ve turned much too paranoid. But the genesis was a stubborn little bitch willing to ruin someone’s life to win an argument. If my one time “one true love” could be so evil, how could I expect strangers I didn’t even know to be fair or to find it in their hearts not to sacrifice me in their own pursuit of pleasure or wealth? I certainly couldn’t. I had always been withdrawn, a Dungeon & Dragons playing nerd with his nose buried in a book. My survival strategy in life had been to avoid everyone, to hide in plain sight. After my personal wake up call I was still a withdrawn nerd with my nose in a book, but now I studied all the ways I was going to get screwed so I could take steps to minimize or neutralize. Thank you, number two, for the only time you truly enjoyed screwing me. It woke me up.

END

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Thanks to the VP of Awesomeness I have a nice stack of books to read. The one I am reading right now is Invisible Resistance To Tyranny: How to Lead a Secret Lift of Insurgency in an Increasingly Unfree World by Jefferson Mack.

First of all I have a suspicion that Paladin Press got a discount on some printing presses that can only publish books with less than 160 pages. In any case that doesn't really matter. Onto the book.

This book is different than most Paladin Press books I have read. Most of them are pretty concrete and split between some guys advice on something and interesting little anecdotes that reinforce the aforementioned advice. This one is much more conceptual and at least to me much more valuable. Hearing some supposed expert who eludes to a vague and mysterious background give his slightly different take on some old advice is cool and all. For the usual price of $10-15 it only takes a few new hints or ideas and a couple entertaining anecdotes to make a book worthwhile. This book has been more valuable than that because it has changed the way I think by exposing me to new ideas.

First of all it starts by talking about the difference between a terrorist and a freedom fighter. Basically the idea was that someone who is pursuing legitimate military type targets and trying to minimize collateral and civilian damage is a freedom fighter regardless of if you like their ideas. Conversely someone who is willing to target civilians and non military type targets is a terrorist. The extreme sides of this sliding scale are easy to identify. A person or group who kill a chief of police who has been running a death squad or an occupying force being identified as a freedom fighter is easy. A person or group that firebomb a preschool are obviously terrorists. There is a lot of gray in between black and white in this situation.

In the gray area we are likely to give benefit of doubt to people whose causes or beliefs we support. A 10 person cell can not expect success in attacking a fortified location where hundreds of armed personnel reside but they can get a good effect by attacking a place those people frequent. Lets say a bomb was placed in a 'soft target' like a restaurant or bar frequented by the targeted group. That bomb explodes at a peak time (say 10PM on a Friday night for a bar or lunchtime at a popular restaurant. It kills several of the targeted group and wounds 20 more. Also the bomb kills the establishments owner, a couple employees, a few random unlucky people and wounds another dozen of the same. If you hate the targeted group this was a legitimate target and the actions were just. If your brother who just needed to earn a living was unlucky enough to be working the kitchen that day the outlook will be different. The middle is very murky indeed.

The most valuable idea I have gotten from this book is that being a good person or a bad person is entirely different from being a good citizen or a bad citizen. We can divide good people and bad people however we want, it isn't that difficult. Good people do not rob, rape or murder. They are fairly hardworking and industrious in whatever they choose to do. They act in a generally honorable manner and are respectful of others. They tend to make good neighbors.

Obviously bad people tend to have characteristics that are opposite those of good people. They are generally difficult and unpleasant to be around. They may be randomly violent or predatory or dishonest. They are often not hardworking or able to harness their natural talents in a way that is useful for themselves or anybody else. They recreate and generally act in ways that are inconsiderate or outright dangerous to others. Probably not somebody you would want as a neighbor.

Good citizens obey laws without questioning them and follow the vast majority of 'the rules'. They pay their taxes in full. If told to do something by a government official or LEO they do it without question or complaint. Bad citizens ignore laws that do not make sense to them. They seek to get around what they feel are needless or restrictive rules. They do not report some or all of their income for tax purposes. They might buy and sell whatever they like without regards to the law. They recreate how they want to and figure as long as they don't bother others it is nobody's business but their own.

The idea that you can be a good person and a bad citizen is very intriguing to me. A person can be a great neighbor or a pillar of the community and never harm another person but just be a horrible citizen. They might keep a nice neat yard and pay their bills and work hard. At the same time that person might recreate (discretely and without harming anyone) however they please. They also may fail to report some of their income which is earned through various under the table transactions. They could barter to avoid taxation. They might even own a weapon that is not legal or grow a little bit of pot for personal use. (Of course I pay my taxes in full and only own legal weapons and would never get near illegal substances and suggest you do the same.)

Interesting real life story which illustrates this. As I have mentioned in the past we have a family friend who is a Doctor. When I was 19 I did some work for him off and on. One time we had to load up, deliver and unload a truck and trailer full of stuff to a town a half days drive away. On the way back we grabbed a late lunch and he got a 6 pack of Bud Light. We got back on the road and I was working on my sandwich when he passed me a beer. After we got back to their house we had dinner where I had another beer before heading home.

This fellow is certainly not a bad person. He is involved in community affairs and donates money and time to causes and charities he believes in. He is a great neighbor and always willing to help out or loan a tool or piece of equipment. In the event in question or any other similar one nobody drove drunk or did anything reckless. However in some ways he is not a particularly good citizen. He thinks open container laws are stupid so he ignores them. He also figures that a responsible adult can have a drink regardless of if they have reached some magic legal age so he serves alcohol to whomever he pleases.

I can not speak for anyone else but when it comes to people I choose to deal with I care if they are a fundamentally good person and are generally enjoyable to be around. I nice person who you can trust and have some fun around is usually a good friend/ acquaintance/ neighbor. I do not care if they fail to report some cash income or turned their garage into an office without the necessary permits or occasionally recreate in a manner that is legally frowned upon.

Very interesting stuff. It has been making me think a lot about many different things. Great book!

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